Episode 71: Remaining Bullish in 2026 with John Luke Tyner of Aptus Capital Advisors
Segment 1:
HELLO Lower Alabama! Hello Gulf Coast! Welcome in. Welcome to Coasting in Retirement! Thanks for joining us today, Josh Null here, with a very special returning guest host, John Luke Tyner, the Head of Fixed Income at Aptus Capital Advisors. John Luke, how are you doing? We are back in Coastal College’s recording studio, beautiful downtown Fairhope, ready to put together another great show, and a brand-new show, for those of you tuning in!
Listeners: John Luke and I are here to discuss financial topics relevant to those of you in or near retirement, living your best life along our part of the Gulf Coast. Here’s what we’ve got in store for you today: First segment – deep dive on our topic of the day. 2nd segment - at about 30 minutes past the hour - “Headlines of the Week”. Then at roughly 50 minutes past the hour, stick around for our 3rd segment, we call it” Josh’s Crystal Ball and Big Mouth”. So buckle up, we’ve got a lot to get to!
Quick background on me for those new to the show. Again, my name is Josh Null, I am a fee-based financial advisor, I hold my FINRA Series 65 securities license, and I am the owner of Gulf Coast Financial Advisors, that is a 100% locally owned, 100% independent investment management and financial planning firm with offices in Fairhope, Orange Beach, and Mobile! You can find more information on me and the team at Gulf Coast Financial Advisors by visiting our website gulfcoastfa.com, or feel free to give us a call at 251-327-2124. If you missed that contact info, get a pen and pad ready because we will repeat our contact info several times throughout the show!
John Luke, before we get started, would you mind to describe your role at Aptus Capital Advisors?
Quick disclaimer for any of you regulators listening in: Aptus Capital Advisors serves as a “Sub-Advisor” to my firm GCFA, which means that Aptus helps our team with our client’s investment accounts, including portfolio construction and trading, among the many other services they provide. What it does NOT mean is that John Luke or Aptus is employed directly by, or for, GCFA. John Luke’s advisory services are offered through Aptus Capital Advisors, a Registered Investment Advisor registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and based in Fairhope, Alabama. Aptus Capital Advisors and Gulf Coast Financial Advisors are NOT affiliated.
Alright, on with the show. John Luke, not sure if you pay attention to the news…lol…but there’s been a lot of talk about the stock market being in an AI bubble. And if you look at the numbers, it can be a little disconcerting, price to earnings are super high, there’s been a wave of corporate mass layoffs, inflation is proving very sticky, and in particular with AI, we have a handful of companies betting billions and billions of dollars when there’s not a 100% clear path to AI profitability on the other side of these massive investments. Oh, and these same companies just happen to be the primary engine behind most of the stock market gains this year, which makes is feel even more precarious. Yet with all of this concerning news floating around, when I asked you what you wanted to talk about today, you landed on discussing the case for investors to remain bullish heading into 2026. Why?
We live in an asset price dependent economy: Recessions do not cause bear markets, bear markets cause recessions.
We've been trained to think markets operate in this boom/bust cycle. We haven't seen a recession since 2009. Today's economy is very different from years and decades past. Technology and services dominate our economy... not farming and cyclical manufacturing.
Not all bubbles are bad bubbles - think about what came from the .com bubble. Sure speculators (not providing any real value to society) lost money but out of it we got Amazon, Facebook, Google search, the iPhone, the internet and connectivity, etc. Bad bubbles = commodity based (tulips, Japan, etc) good bubbles are on innovation.
Main points on things I see supporting market in 2026:
•Fed Back in Cutting Cycle.
•Fed Balance Sheet stopped declining in Dec (and likely increases). (We have an article about this in Seg 2 so leave some meat on the bone)
•Consumer supported by strong balance sheets given asset prices.
•OBBB will be stimulative to the consumer in 2026 - $150bn+ tax refunds (no tax on tips, SS, OT, etc).
•OBBB has already been stimulative for corporate investment (i.e., reshoring, etc.)
•Stimulus measures from last couple years continues to drip into markets
•Fiscal deficits running 6%+
•AI Capex Spend serving as Private Stimulus to markets
•Lower rates should help unfreeze Real Estate markets (30 year fixed below 6%)
(John Luke: I did a quick Gemini search just to help me discuss these topics with you. Here it is):
2026 Market Support Drivers: An Analysis
• Fed Back in Cutting Cycle.
Analysis: This is arguably the single most powerful driver for asset prices. The market's expectation of lower rates often drives multiple expansion, meaning investors are willing to pay more for a dollar of future earnings. Historically, the start of a cutting cycle—even if triggered by weak economic data—is interpreted by the market as a liquidity injection and a put option against severe downturns. Lower rates directly reduce the discount rate used in financial models, increasing the present value of future corporate profits, and making equities more attractive relative to bonds.
• Fed Balance Sheet stopped declining in Dec (and likely increases).
Analysis: This is a crucial, subtle point. The Federal Reserve has signaled the end of its Quantitative Tightening (QT) runoff, which began in June 2022. The decision to stop the runoff, confirmed to start in December 2025 (according to communications), halts the passive draining of liquidity from the financial system. Even if the Fed isn't actively engaging in Quantitative Easing (QE) yet, simply ceasing the contraction removes a key headwind on market liquidity and bank reserves, preventing money market stress. A future increase in the balance sheet would be a direct monetary stimulus, but the mere end of the decline is supportive.
• Consumer supported by strong balance sheets given asset prices.
Analysis: This ties directly to your thesis about an asset price dependent economy. When household assets (stocks, real estate) are highly valued, it creates a powerful wealth effect. Consumers feel wealthier, leading to higher consumer confidence and a willingness to spend (or at least maintain spending) despite inflation or job market softness. Their perceived balance sheet strength acts as a buffer against recessionary pressures, allowing consumption to continue driving a large part of the GDP.
• OBBB will be stimulative to the consumer in 2026 - $150bn+ tax refunds (no tax on tips, SS, OT, etc).
Analysis: The "One Big Beautiful Bill" (OBBB)—or similar tax reform legislation—is projected to significantly increase the standard deduction, extend existing tax cuts, and include provisions like temporary tax relief on specific types of income. Such measures translate to a substantial, front-loaded fiscal stimulus in early 2026 via large tax refunds. This acts as a direct, immediate boost to consumer disposable income, driving consumption and short-term GDP growth, similar to previous stimulus payments.
• OBBB has already been stimulative for corporate investment (i.e., reshoring, etc.).
Analysis: Beyond the consumer, the OBBB also includes provisions (like the restoration or enhancement of certain business deductions/credits) that incentivize corporate capital spending (Capex). This encourages reshoring and domestic investment in manufacturing and technology, creating jobs and driving demand for industrial and materials sectors—a form of government-induced private stimulus.
• Stimulus measures from last couple years continues to drip into markets.
Analysis: This refers to the lagged effect of prior fiscal and monetary injections (like infrastructure spending from the previous several years). Government funds take time to move from authorization to expenditure (e.g., building roads, deploying energy projects). These multi-year spending programs provide an ongoing, sustained demand floor for various industries, ensuring a steady, long tail of government-backed activity into 2026.
• Fiscal deficits running 6%+
Analysis: A deficit running at 6% or more of GDP is a massive, persistent fiscal expansion. The government is spending far more than it collects in taxes, injecting hundreds of billions (or trillions) of dollars of liquidity and demand directly into the economy. This level of spending, even while the Fed is attempting to cool the economy, works as a constant, counter-cyclical force that acts as an economic floor, making a deep recession highly unlikely, but contributing to higher interest rates (long-term).
• AI Capex Spend serving as Private Stimulus to markets
Analysis: This is the private sector's equivalent of government stimulus. Current projections for AI-related capital expenditure (CapEx) on data centers, semiconductors, and specialized power infrastructure are reaching unprecedented levels, estimated to grow by over $25\%$ in 2026 for major hyperscalers alone. This massive, front-loaded spending by a few giant tech companies acts as an organic, private-sector growth engine that disproportionately benefits the equity markets, particularly the largest stocks, and spills over into construction, energy, and hardware sectors.
• Lower rates should help unfreeze Real Estate markets (30 year fixed below 6%)
Analysis: The housing market has been essentially frozen due to high mortgage rates that discouraged existing homeowners with low fixed rates from selling. Major forecasts, including those from Fannie Mae, are projecting the 30-year fixed rate to fall below $6\%$ (or near $6\%$) by late 2026 as the Fed shifts into a cutting cycle. This drop in rates improves housing affordability and incentivizes the "golden handcuffs" generation of homeowners to finally move, unlocking inventory, increasing transactions, and providing a powerful cyclical boost to the housing, construction, and durable goods sectors.
This analysis underscores the strong case that several powerful forces—monetary policy shifts, fiscal stimulus, and private sector investment—are aligning to provide significant support for asset prices in 2026.
Very good. Listeners, if you’ve liked what you’ve heard and want to set up a follow up conversation with the team at Gulf Coast Financial Advisors, it’s easy. You can call us at 251-327-2124, or find us on our website gulfcoastfa.com. One our site, click on the blue button in the upper right-hand corner to set up a meeting on my calendar. There are flexible meeting choices for your convenience – it can be as simple as a 15-minute introductory phone call, a 30-minute zoom, or my preference, an in-person meeting at any of our 3 office locations: Downtwon Fairhope, Orange Beach just down the road from the Wharf, or in Mobile off Dauphin St and I-65. Reach out to us - we would love to meet you!
Alright folks, coming up next - There’s always a lot going on in the world! Particularly the world of finance, investments and money. Every week we scour the internet for financial articles relevant to those of you in or near retirement, then give you our honest opinion about these headlines. So join us after the break to hear John Luke and I discuss this week’s relevant headlines in our “Headlines of the Week” segment. Stay tuned!
Segment 2 - News of the Week:
“Welcome back to Coasting in Retirement, your host Josh Null here, alongside guest co-host John Luke Tyner of Aptus Capital Advisors. As we discussed before the break, every week we scour the world wide web for financial articles that pertain to those of you in or near retirement. Our job, or at least we tell ourselves it is, is to help you all understand how these headlines impact you, especially when it comes to your money! Note – if you want to read our referenced articles yourself, we also include the links in our show transcript, which you can find on our website gulfcoastfa.com under the podcast tab. Now without further adieu, here’s the Headlines of the Week!
1. Instead of a headline, we’re going to start off with a book recommendation. John Luke, a couple of episodes back I gave listeners my top 3-4 financial books. I’ll give you a quick synopsis: I think that everyone should read Dave Ramsey’s Total Money Makeover, and for a fun read that gives people a glimpse behind the scenes of our biz, with a little exaggeration thrown in for fun, I listed Liar’s Poker and The Big Short by Michael Lewis. I also instructed listeners to NEVER read Poor Dad / Rich Dad by Robert Kioyski, and if they already had a copy of the book, to burn it. I asked for your pick, and true to form you went a little inside baseball with a book called the “Price of Time” by Edward Chancellor. I am not familiar with the book, so fill us in as to why you love this book and our listeners should read it:
2. Alright listeners. Some advice I got years ago about having a radio show was to “make sure there’s a couple of cookies on the first shelf”. Meaning, if you’re constantly in economic nerdville, you’ll lose some listeners. Well, this article is probably closer to the top shelf, but it’s worth the lift to you savvy investors. And it helps up expand on something we discussed in the opening segment. We have a very recent article titled, “Fed Ends Balance Sheet Normalization | CFC Solutions News Bulletin,”, hosted on a new-to-the-show site called CFC Solutions .com. The article states that on December 1st, the Federal Reserve officially halted its Quantitative Tightening (QT) program—the process of letting bonds mature without replacement. This decision came sooner than many expected and was influenced by recent volatility and increasing pressure in money markets. By ending the decline, the Fed removes a major headwind on market liquidity, aiming to stabilize short-term funding rates and restore a sense of "ample reserves" in the banking system, which had been quickly depleting. John Luke, since the Fed has effectively stabilized its balance sheet at around $6.6 trillion, what does this tell us about the Fed's primary focus right now—is it still inflation, or is it, as the article suggests, an overriding fear of liquidity stress and a deep recession?
https://www.nrucfc.coop/content/solutions/en/stories/economy/fed-ends-balance-sheet-normalization.html
3. Speaking of savvy investors, regular listeners may have noticed that we don’t discuss private credit much on this show. With this topic becoming “topic de-jour”, I thought we should address that. And probably no better source of information than Aptus Capital Advisor’s own blog page. You all have a recent blog post titled “Five Reasons Retail Should Be Wary of Private Credit (Especially Retirement Plans)”. According to this article, private credit recently surpassed the entire market for listed high-yield corporate bonds, listeners may recognize the term “junk bonds”, with $1.7 trillion in assets per Preqin. And while the yield looks great, the line on the chart looks so silky smooth, and the marketing is so persuasive, there’s more to the story. Care to expand?
https://aptuscapitaladvisors.com/five-reasons-retail-should-be-wary-of-private-credit-especially-retirement-plans/
Listeners, if you’ve liked what you’ve heard and want to discuss your own personal retirement dreams and goals, then give us a call at 251-327-2124, or find us through our website gulfcoastfa.com. One our site, click on the blue button in the upper right-hand corner to set up a meeting on my calendar. We have several meeting choices for your convenience – it can be as simple as a 15-minute introductory phone call, all the way to an in-person meeting at any of our 3 office locations: Downtown Fairhope, Orange Beach, or Mobile, near the intersection of Dauphin St and I-65. Reach out to us - we would love to meet you!
Alright folks, coming up next: Josh’s Crystal Ball and Big Mouth. What have been some of my predictions? Have I been right? Was I ever wrong? How wrong? What do I think is going to affect investors in the near future, or maybe the distant future? We talk about all of these things and poke a little fun at my big mouth. Stay tuned!
Segment 3 – Josh’s Crystal Ball and Big Mouth:
Welcome back! Your host Josh Null here, joined by returning guest host John Luke Tyner of Aptus Capital Advisors. So, I am opinionated, I have strong opinions at times, I would say a radio show host that isn’t probably wouldn’t be very interesting to listen to. And John Luke and I are paid in our respective professions to offer professional guidance and opinions to my clients, so if we don’t anything intelligent to say, just replace us with AI. I like making predictions, sometimes I hit the bullseye, sometimes I swing and I miss. Who’s going to eat a little crow today – me or John Luke? Then let’s get at with Josh’s Crystal Ball and Big Mouth and find out.
Oh, here’s fun one. Man did 2025 go fast. Way back in April of this year, over 20 episodes ago, I asked you to make a prediction as to where the S&P 500 index would end this year. Now of course the year isn’t over yet, but I may not get you back on the show until 2026, so let’s go ahead and see how that prediction played out. Let me set the table: When we recorded that episode, the stock market was in a general sell-off related to investors’ reaction to President Trump’s “liberation day”, where a bunch of tariffs where announced. At the time of that recording, the S&P 500 was hovering around 5400. As of this recording, it’s hovering around 6850, a substantial increase. I hope JD is listening because if the race was called today, he won in a landslide. I had predicted we would be at 6500 in December, JD predicted 6800, and you, John Luke Tyner, guessed…6100…lol. Now to be fair, while 6100 looks bearish on your part, you also told our listeners that they shouldn’t bet against the US consumer and that these types of market sell-offs are never as bad as you think. With that said, what do you have to say about your 2025 prediction, and, what say you about 2026?
Well, listeners, I hope you enjoyed a little peek into how we form our opinions and make predictions. We invite you one last time, if you would like to have a no-pressure, no-obligation conversation about your investing goals and retirement dreams, you can call us at 251-327-2124, or find us through our website gulfcoastfa.com. One our site, click on the blue button in the upper right-hand corner to set up a meeting on my calendar. We have several meeting choices for your convenience – it can be as simple as a 15-minute introductory phone call, all the way to an in-person meeting at any of our 3 office locations. You can find GCFA offices in downtown Fairhope, or Orange Beach off Canal Road, or in Mobile off Dauphin St and I-65. Reach out to us - we would love to meet you!
That’s our show for this week! I want to give a huge thank you to my guest co-host, John Luke Tyner, thank you to our show sponsor, Providence Partners and Jay Stubbs, thank you to our awesome radio station, FM Talk 106.5 out of Mobile, many thanks to the provider of our show music, local band Sloth Racer, huge thank to the show producer, my son Payton Null, and as always my sincere appreciation for all of your out there that have been listening and joining us on this journey. We would love to be a part of your journey as well! Until we talk again, have a wonderful and productive week. This has been Coasting in Retirement with Josh Null!
GCFA Disclosure:
Gulf Coast Financial Advisors, LLC ("GCFA”) is a registered investment adviser offering advisory services in the State of Alabama and in such other jurisdictions where it is registered, filed the required notices, or is otherwise excluded or exempted from such registration and/or notice filing requirements. Registration does not indicate or imply that GCFA has attained a particular level of skill or ability, nor does it constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or any state securities regulator.
The Coasting in Retirement radio program serves mainly to disseminate general information including those pertaining to GCFA’s advisory services, together with access to additional investment-related information, publications, materials and links. The publication of this radio show should not be construed by any client and/or prospective client as GCFA’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect transactions in securities, nor should it be interpreted as GCFA providing personalized investment advice, or any type of professional advice, for compensation, wherever this program is broadcast. Any subsequent, direct communication by GCFA with a prospective client will be conducted by a representative that is either registered or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration in the state where the prospective client resides.
Certain information, news stories, headlines, data, charts, graphs, figures or statistics presented on this radio program may have been obtained from third-party sources that are believed to be generally reliable but which GCFA may not have independently verified. GCFA does not and cannot guarantee the timeliness, accuracy, or reliability of any such third-party information and undertakes no obligation to update or correct any information that may become obsolete, unreliable, or inaccurate. The radio program also contains the opinions, views, and perspectives expressed by Josh Null and any other GCFA representatives which are solely their own, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions, views, or perspectives of GCFA as a firm. Such personal views and opinions should not be construed as endorsements or professional advice from GCFA. GCFA makes no representation or warranty regarding the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information on this radio program, and disclaims any liability for any direct or indirect loss or damage incurred from using or relying on such information.
GCFA, Aptus, Providence Benefits and Providence Partners are not affiliated, nor are any of their respective representatives.