Episode 51: What is Going on with the Stock Market? And How to Handle It.
Segment 1 (Show Open):
HELLO Lower Alabama! Hello Gulf Coast! Welcome in. Welcome to Coasting in Retirement! That’s. Right. Thanks for joining us today, we’re excited to have you! Josh Null here, regular co-host Michelle is off again this week, she will be back next week, in her place is regular fill-in co-host JD Gardner, the Founder & CIO of Aptus Capital Advisors. JD, how are you doing?
Listeners: JD and I are here to discuss financial topics relevant to those of you in or near retirement, living your best life along our part of the gulf coast. Here’s what we’ve got in store for you today: First segment – deep dive on our topic of the day. 2nd segment - at about 25 minutes past the hour - “News Headlines of the Week”, and there’s some doozies there. Then at roughly 45 minutes past the hour, stick around for our 3rd segment, we call it ”Josh’s Crystal Ball and Big Mouth”, and with so many people in the media offering up stock market predictions, were going to have some fun with this one. So buckle up, we’ve got a lot to get to!
Quick background on me for those new to the show. Again, my name is Josh Null, I am a fee-based financial advisor, I hold my FINRA Series 65 securities license, and I am the owner of Gulf Coast Financial Advisors, we are an independent investment management and financial planning firm with offices in Fairhope, Orange Beach, and Mobile! You can find more information on me and Gulf Coast Financial Advisors by visiting our website gulfcoastfa.com, or feel free to give us a call at 251-327-2124. If you missed that contact info, grab a pen and pad, we will repeat it several times throughout the show!
I’m also going to do a quick disclaimer to help the listeners understand the role of Aptus with Gulf Coast Financial Advisors. As I mentioned in the opening, JD Gardner is the CIO and Founder of Aptus Capital Advisors. JD also holds the esteemed credentials of CFA, which stands for Chartered Financial Analyst, and CMT, which stands for Chartered Market Technician. JD’s firm Aptus Capital Advisors serves as a Sub Advisor to my firm GCFA, which means that Aptus helps our team with our client’s investment accounts, including portfolio construction and trading, among the many other services they provide. What it does NOT mean is that JD or Aptus is employed directly by, or for, GCFA. JD’s advisory services are offered through Aptus Capital Advisors, a Registered Investment Advisor registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and based in Fairhope, Alabama. Aptus Capital Advisors and Gulf Coast Financial Advisors are not affiliated.
Alright, back to the show. JD, last time you and I were together in studio, the stock market was on a tear, we both agreed it was reacting very positively to the then recent election of Donald Trump, and all indications were that investors were headed for blue skies after experiencing so much volatility. But…a lot has changed since then! Instead of smooth sailing, we’ve had increased volatility as the markets react to President’s Trump’s various tariff pronouncements, along with stubborn inflation numbers and uncertain geopolitical situations. So what I want to discuss today with you is a little deeper dive into why the market is experiencing all of these up and down gyrations, but more importantly, what investors can do about it. Can investors do anything with their investment portfolios other than just hang tight? That is a question that JD and I will attempt to answer today.
Let’s start with this JD. I think anyone that pays any attention at all knows the major factors behind the recent stock market volatility. What they may not understand is the history of stock market volatility. So let me kick off our conversation with a question to you. They say history doesn’t repeat itself, but it does rhyme – so do the recent wild swings in the market have any historical context, OR, are we in uncharted territory?
JD and Josh back and forth conversation here. Once we answer that question (I don’t know what you are going to say, I’ll adjust accordingly), then I want to briefly (3-5 minutes) discuss the history of the stock market, i.e., despite all the doom and gloom talk (always), the market has trended up and to the right for decades. I recently did an episode that looked at the last 50 year history of the major indexes. I don’t want rehash that analysis, but I do think the research I did is enlightening, so for reference here are those charts, broken down by decade:
The 1980s: A Bull Market Emerges
The 1980s were characterized by significant economic growth and the emergence of a bull market. Key events during this decade included the implementation of deregulation policies, tax cuts under the Reagan administration, and advancements in technology. The stock market responded positively, with major indexes experiencing substantial gains.
The 1990s were marked by the rapid expansion of the internet and technology sectors, leading to the dot-com boom. The stock market indexes soared as investors poured money into tech companies, anticipating substantial returns. The decade ended with unprecedented highs, but the bubble burst shortly after.The 1990s: The Dot-Com Boom
The 2000s: The Dot-Com Bust and Financial Crisis
Oh, the good times are over. The early 2000s witnessed the aftermath of the dot-com bust, leading to a significant market downturn. The decade was further challenged by the 2008 financial crisis, which caused severe disruptions in financial markets globally. This is one of the only decades where you will see some of the major indexes lose ground over 10 years, but despite these challenges, the market showed resilience towards the end of the decade.
The 2010s: A Decade of Recovery and Growth. The 2010s were marked by recovery from the financial crisis and a subsequent period of economic growth. Central bank policies, technological advancements, and globalization contributed to the positive performance of stock market indexes during this decade.
The 2020s: Pandemic and Economic Uncertainty
The 2020s began with the unprecedented global impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, leading to significant market volatility. Governments and central banks implemented various measures to stabilize the economy, resulting in a rapid recovery for stock markets. However, ongoing concerns about inflation, supply chain disruptions, and geopolitical tensions have continued to influence market performance. NOTE: Needs updating with 2024 numbers, just for general discussion today.
JD – so we’ve established that the market tends to go up and to the right over almost any extended period, now let’s answer the question – why? Should investors take any comfort in the fact that if they will stay invested, history tells them that things will work out ok?
So, we’ve discussed whether this recent stock market volatility has any historical reference, we’ve given the mathematically proof that the stock market tends up and to the right over time, and more importantly, WHY this is, so let’s put a bow on this entire conversation before we move on to our next segment. Given that stock market volatility is a certainty, WHAT can investors do, besides just hang on, to accommodate, or possibly even take advantage of, the ups and downs of the market with their OWN investments? Listeners, pretty sure we have your attention, so let me re-iterate the role that JD and his firm Aptus Capital Advisors serves with my firm Gulf Coast Financial Advisors. The technical definition is “sub-advisor”, but the important part for you all to remember is that all of my clients enjoy the incredible expertise and service that Aptus provides via portfolio management and investment advice. It is a team effort, and in my opinion, it’s one hell of a team.
For those of you that would like to start the conversation about your OWN personal investing and retirement goals and dreams, we encourage you to reach out to us. You can reach us by phone at 251-327-2124, or through our website gulfcoastfa.com. One our site, you can choose to send us a direct message, or you can click on the blue button in the upper right-hand corner to set up a 15-minute introductory phone call on my calendar. Plus for those of you that like to do business in person, like I do, you can always schedule a no-obligation, no BS first meeting at any of our 3 convenient locations: downtown Fairhope in the Portico building, or Orange Beach off Canal Road, just down the road from the Wharf, or in Mobile, near the intersection of Dauphin St and I-65. We would love to meet you!
Alright folks, coming up next - There’s always a lot going on in the world! Particularly the world of finance, investments and money. Every week we scour the internet for financial articles related to our topic of the day, especially articles that pertain to those in or near retirement. Join us after the break to hear JD and I discuss this week’s relevant headlines in our “News Headlines of the Week” segment. Stay tuned!
Segment 2 - News of the Week:
Welcome back to Coasting in Retirement, your host Josh Null here! As we discussed before the break, every week we scour the interwebs for helpful financial articles related to our topic of the day, especially articles that pertain to those of you in or near retirement. Our job is to help you all understand how these headlines impact you, especially when it comes to your money! Note – if you want to read our referenced articles yourself, we also include the links on our show transcript, which you can find on our website gulfcoastfa.com under the podcast tab. We upload our episodes every Monday after the show airs on Sunday. Without further ado, here’s the “News Headlines of the Week”
1. Josh: First up JD, an article from Yahoo Finance titled “A $4.5 Trillion Triple-Witching Gives Investors Yet Another Test”. So first, full disclosure, we are recording this episode on Friday, March 21st, which is means that this triple-witching activity we’re about to discuss is happening right now. JD, can you help listeners understand what triple-witching means in relation to options contracts, why it apparently happens on four Fridays every year, and most importantly, how much should retail investors be concerned about it?
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/4-5-trillion-triple-witching-115919842.html
2. Next up JD, let’s pivot to familiar territory for you. We’ve often referenced blow posting on your site, aptuscapitaladvisors.com, you all do a great job, so let’s discuss a very recent post you all had called “Aptus Musings: Perspective on the Market Pullback”. The article author starts off with bragging about the extension basketball talent at Aptus, which is very true, and you all even offer your March Madness winner predictions, which I noticed not one of you all picked Auburn. Why is that? (jokes). Alright, back to the article, can you give the listener a quick summary of the post, specifically, I’m curious to get your take on the section that says that Trump “may have made internationally equities great again”.
https://aptuscapitaladvisors.com/aptus-musings-perspective-on-the-market-pullback/
3. So JD, I think it’s fair to say that many investors are worried about a stock market crash. I would say, after having done this for so many years, that EVERY year there’s at least some investors worried about a crash. I can tell you folks, that it’s this particular fear that the fixed-index annuity sales-shops are going to stoke if you meet with them, so if you want to be armed with knowledge, take a listen to our feedback on this article. It’s from Forbes and it's titled “Is a Stock Market Crash Underway? One Chart to See, One Call to Make”. I can tell our listeners if you combined most stock market predictions with $2, you’d have enough money to buy a cheap cup of coffee at the gas station. So keep that in mind when I tell you that this author makes a decent case about how we are headed for a crash, and how he is “100% out of U.S. equities”. Let’s have some fun with this JD. The old adage, is it timing the market, or is it time IN the market? This author claims he can time it. Your thoughts:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2025/03/18/is-a-stock-market-crash-underway-one-chart-to-see-one-call-to-make/
4. So regular listeners will know that I often joke about how my Economics degree is from the Harvard of the Midwest, Missouri State University, a very fine school but it ain’t Ivy league, to be fair. That said, during my economic studies, we often dived deep into monetary supply, but as my life and career moved on, I kinda stopped thinking about the effect that the sheer volume of money has on our economy and markets, honestly until you reintroduced the topic several years ago. So for our last article JD, let’s discuss Barron’s recent headline “The M2 Money Supply Posts Its Biggest Gain in 30 Months”. So let’s discuss what monetary supply is, and more importantly, why investors should pay attention to what more or less boils down to the constant increasing production of money:
https://www.barrons.com/articles/m2-money-supply-gain-22b793d5
JD, great job discussing these headlines, I know I learned a lot and I’m sure our listeners did too. Speaking of our listeners, I hope you all are picking up what we’re setting down, that GCFA and Aptus Capital Advisors makes for a solid team with great processes related to your financial planning and investment management needs. I encourage those of you that want to continue the conversation to pick up the phone and give us a call at 251-327-2124, or click on the blue button in the upper right corner on our website gulfcoastfa.com to set a 15 minute conversation, or, better yet, reach out to us to schedule an in-person conversation at any of our 3 offices in downtown Fairhope, Orange Beach or Mobile.
Alright folks, coming up next: Josh’s Crystal Ball and Big Mouth. What have been some of my predictions? Have I been right? Was I ever wrong? How wrong? JD, I must tell you just how much I love seeing people with zero experience around a particular issue lecturing, bloviating and predicting about said issue online, especially with social media. I did not realize we had so many trained economists in America! I jest, of course. The blowhards actually wear me out, if I ever even take the time to pay attention, which is rare. But listeners, if YOU want to hear a little context about issues that JD and I actually know a little bit about, stay tuned!
Segment 3 – Josh’s Crystal Ball and Big Mouth:
Welcome back! Your host Josh Null here, along side guest co-host JD Gardner. So, JD, I am opinionated, so are you, I have strong opinions at times, so do you, I would say a radio show host that isn’t probably wouldn’t be very interesting to listen to. And we are both paid in our respective professions to offer professional guidance and opinions to our clients, otherwise what use would we be? Sometimes I feel so strongly about something that I talk about it publicly, sometimes I’ll even make predictions, and while I feel I’m usually proved right because I tend to be skeptical of my own industry, there are times I swing and I miss. So listeners, want to hear where JD or I was right, or maybe, an example of when we missed the mark? Then let’s get at with Josh’s Crystal Ball and Big Mouth.
Well listeners, I hoped you enjoyed a peak behind the curtain on how JD and I form our opinions and predictions, and more importantly, that we’re willing to admit when we are wrong. Which isn’t very often, but still. Listeners, if you’ve liked what you’ve heard today, if you would like to start the conversation around your investing and retirement dreams and goals, we invite you one last time to reach out to us. You can reach us by phone at 251-327-2124, or through our website gulfcoastfa.com. One our site, you can click on the blue button in the upper right-hand corner to set up a 15-minute introductory phone call on my calendar. Plus for those of you that like to do business in person, like I do, you can always schedule a no-obligation, no BS first meeting at any of our 3 convenient locations: downtown Fairhope in the Portico building, or Orange Beach off Canal Road, just down the road from the Wharf, or in Mobile, near the intersection of Dauphin St and I-65. We would love to meet you!
Folks, that is a wrap for this week on Coasting in Retirement! I want to give a huge thank you to my guest co-host, JD Garnder of Aptus Capital Advisors, a thank you to our two awesome radio stations, FM Talk 106.5 out of Mobile and WHEP 92.5 FM / 1310 AM out of Foley, a thank you to our awesome show producer, my son Payton Null, many thanks to the provider of our show music, local band Sloth Racer, and as always my sincere appreciation for all of your out there that have been listening and joining us on this journey. We would love to be a part of your journey as well. Until we talk again, have a wonderful and productive week. This has been Coasting in Retirement with Josh Null!
GCFA Disclosure:
Gulf Coast Financial Advisors, LLC ("GCFA”) is a registered investment adviser offering advisory services in the State of Alabama and in such other jurisdictions where it is registered, filed the required notices, or is otherwise excluded or exempted from such registration and/or notice filing requirements. Registration does not indicate or imply that GCFA has attained a particular level of skill or ability, nor does it constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or any state securities regulator.
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Aptus Capital Advisors and Gulf Coast Financial Advisors are separate and distinct organizations, and are not affiliated. Aptus receives payment for investment management services directly from Gulf Coast Financial Advisors and not from clients' accounts. There are no revenue sharing or referral fees paid to, or received from, in regards to Aptus Capital Advisors' role with Gulf Coast Financial Advisors.
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